Hewers of wood, drawers of water

Abandon hope, all ye who enter here. If you don’t like bad news or pessimistic forecasting, read no further. I have nothing positive to say about the near-term future of the Canadian economy. Despite the homespun efforts of Canadians to buy Canadian products in grocery stores, I see only troubling signs for our economy that will almost certainly lead to a recession later this year. We may already be in one.
Why do you think Ontario Premier Doug Ford called an election way before he needed to? Because he can collar another mandate before the economy tanks and he would have been blamed.
When U.S. President Donald Trump brings in a 25 percent or some other number tariff, how likely is it that Canadian firms will cut their prices to preserve sales or take lower profits by remaining here. Instead, as companies who manufacture items in Canada watch their export sales fall, more and more of them will choose to move to the U.S. where their main market already is.
Job loss will be substantial. As a result of Trump tariffs, auto manufacturers will move holus-bolus from Windsor to Detroit. In the case of auto parts makers, some products go back and forth across the border several times with successive steps carried out in both countries. As costs skyrocket, those parts that now start here will depart to any number of northern tier states.
Other industries are already stressed. For too long we have taken the easy route and shipped everything south with little or no “hand-work.” Typical is aluminum, about to face a tariff. Take Arvida, Quebec, for example, where aluminum is produced that is used by highly paid workers to make a cajillion products for sale to consumers. But all too few of those workers are in Canada. We don’t even have a rolling mill that turns aluminum into sheets that can be used to make other products. The situation in aluminum is repeated as we ship untouched to the U.S. oil via pipeline from Alberta or lumber from British Columbia.
And just to add tragedy to an already calamitous situation, those Canadians who believe it is their right to enjoy an annual winter holiday in Florida or Arizona, are discovering that our dollar is making such a pleasure prohibitive. After all, it costs C$1.50 to buy US$1. If we don’t watch out, we’ll all be freezing in the dark. Jobless.