Handicapping the race

The race is on to replace Justin Trudeau as Prime Minister and leader of the Liberal Party. Who, even a few months ago, would have foreseen such a turn of events? But here we are, so let’s review what happened and then handicap the potential candidates.
For the longest time, the uprising within the Liberal caucus seemed stuck at about twenty malcontents. Then, suddenly, a majority of the Liberal MPs from Atlantic Canada, followed by a similar number in each of Quebec and Ontario announced themselves unhappy with Trudeau.
How the mighty had fallen. Even while Trudeau was jetting around the world, meeting with every group who’d have him, the groundswell was growing. Maybe he sensed the background noise and was seeking a safe landing spot with some international agency.
But once caucus announced its January 8th gathering, Trudeau knew he had to make a decision: get out or tough it out. He wrestled with his choices over the weekend and yesterday announced he’d step down.
Maybe if Trudeau hadn’t treated Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland in such a ham-handed manner, none of this would have happened. Imagine telling her she was no longer finance minister because he was bringing in an outsider, Mark Carney, to replace her. Freeland thought about his bright idea, then announced her resignation, saying in effect, “You can’t fire me, I quit.”
Here’s my handicapping for the next leader. On the lower rungs are a few cabinet ministers such as Anita Anand, François-Philippe Champagne and Melanie Joly. None of them are exactly household names. No Liberal premier seems poised to run.
Dominic LeBlanc: A clear number three. As an MP from New Brunswick he’ll be a first-ballot selection for many delegates from Atlantic Canada. I like him. He’d be my choice.
Mark Carney: On paper, Carney is top-rung. Educated at Harvard and Oxford, he’s been governor of the Bank of Canada and the Bank of England. He’s become a wealthy businessman running various aspects of the Brookfield empire. But he doesn’t have a seat in Parliament.
Chrystia Freeland: By far the front-runner. After Trudeau gave her the heave-ho, everyone admired her hutzpah in resigning. But the Liberals, and their new leader, will struggle for airtime.
This roustabout among Liberals helps the Conservatives and Pierre Poilievre. There will be a spring election. Nanos polling has Poilievre 26 points ahead. Unless Poilievre blows up, the Conservatives will coast to victory. And likely a second majority in four years.
Meanwhile, let’s not shed a tear for Trudeau. His departing words outside Rideau Cottage yesterday were classy. At 53, he will land on his feet.