Getting Trumped

I’ve been sitting here asking myself just how the election of Donald Trump as president of the United States is good for Canada, and I’m having trouble finding a single reason. First off, Trump has promised to slap a 20 percent duty on all goods being imported into the U.S. Three-quarters of Canada’s trade is with the U.S. so that means higher prices and fewer sales of Canadian goods thereby resulting in a downturn in our economy that could lead to a recession here.
This downturn will be further amplified by a stronger U.S. dollar that will mean a weaker Canadian dollar which will cause prices in Canada to rise. As for Canadians wintering in Florida, Texas and Arizona, they probably already feel the weakness of the C$.
Another outcome that could flow from a Trump victory in the electoral college looks as if it will mean a both a Republican Senate and House of Representatives. Trump already has the Supreme Court on his side. The combination will mean he can bring in any law he wants. I somehow can’t imagine that any action he might have in mind will be a positive for Canada.
If the next Canadian election yields a Conservative government as the opinion polls currently predict, Trump will regard Pierre Poilievre as a pipsqueak whose name Trump will almost certainly mangle. Not for fun, just because he won’t care to try very hard to pronounce it right.
In fact, the election of Donald Trump, may, in the short term, be good for Prime Minister Justin Trudeau. The two leaders did work together during the first Trump administration on updating the North American Free Trade Agreement. And the Government of Canada has representation in Washington that will be able to make connections with new political staff in both the White House and Congress.
Trudeau will, at some point, be able to make an official visit and pay his respects to Trump. Such an encounter might not help much, but it won’t hurt. A trip by Trump to Ottawa is unimaginable. If he travels at all, he will want to swan around in London, Paris and Berlin.
Unlike President Ronald Reagan who famously said, “Mr. Gorbachev, tear down this wall,” Donald Trump is more likely to build a wall against Canada. Be prepared to feel cold and lonely.